After 30 years of futility, the Detroit Lions are looking for their second home playoff win in as many weeks.
The pregame narrative: The Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose front seven could cause problems for Jahmyr Gibbs. I’m fading the rookie’s scrimmage yards prop while backing Tampa tight end Cade Otton to build off last week’s huge receiving output.
Though it’d be unwise to expect Otton to replicate his exceptional performance from the wild-card round, that showing should grab your attention. In Tampa Bay’s most important game of the year, the sophomore tight end was a mainstay in the game plan.
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Otton finished last week with 89 yards on eight catches, which set a Bucs playoff record for the most single-game receptions by a tight end (yes, even higher than any total Rob Gronkowski accumulated).
In a way, one could argue this performance came out of nowhere. Otton had just nine total catches over his previous five games.
But in the playoffs, teams look for an edge wherever they can get one. The Philadelphia Eagles were a good matchup for Otton, as they allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to TEs this year (54.8), per CBS Sports.
And the Lions, who allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to TEs (54.6), look like a solid matchup for Otton to take advantage of, too.
Detroit has allowed six tight ends to record 30-plus receiving yards over its past six games. And on the whole, the Lions coughed up the sixth-most passing yards per game this season.
Otton’s efforts last week should earn him some trust moving forward, and hopefully, that translates to him clearing this modest line.
Key stat: Otton has 30-plus receiving yards in five of his past nine games, averaging 32.2 receiving yards in that span.
The Bucs allowed just 3.8 yards per rush during the regular season (eighth-best in the NFL), and then they held the run-heavy Eagles to just 42 total yards on the ground last week.
Gibbs does have some serious dual-threat talent, but the Buccaneers have some of the best off-ball linebackers in the league with Devin White and Lavonte David. Tampa allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing RBs this season (26.9).
Gibbs has hit this under in three straight games, as well as eight of 16 on the year. This just might not be the rookie’s day.
Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. The Star’s parent company has a minority interest in NorthStar Bets. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin
