OTTAWA — Foreign interference in the last two federal elections undermined public confidence in democracy as well as the right of Canadians to have elections free of covert influence, a landmark public inquiry report concluded Friday.
While Quebec Justice Marie-Josée Hogue concluded the overall results of the 2019 and 2021 federal elections were not swayed by foreign-state meddling, she said “some votes” were likely impacted in both races, a conclusion that highlights the stakes in what she concluded is an increasing threat to Canadian democracy.
Calling the acts of interference a “stain on our electoral process,” Hogue’s interim report also flagged gaps in the systems designed to protect Canada’s elections from malicious state actors. Recommendations on how to plug them will be the next phase of her work.
“Interference occurred in the last two general elections, and indeed continues to occur frequently,” she wrote.
“It is likely to increase and have negative consequences for our democracy unless vigorous measures are taken to detect and better counter it.”
In her report, Hogue took pains to emphasize that intelligence is not always established fact, and that she is only able to reveal part of what she has learned from secret national security documents and interviews with key players. Some of those interviews, and players, were also part of the public hearing process that unfolded earlier this year.
Among the problem areas she flagged were nomination contests, which Hogue called “gateways for foreign states who wish to interfere in our democratic process.”
That was in reference to her conclusions about the 2019 Liberal nomination race in Don Valley North, and intelligence suggesting China sought to influence the selection of a preferred candidate, Han Dong, allegedly by getting busloads of students out to vote for him and threatening their student visas if they didn’t.
Since the Liberals would likely have won that riding in the general election anyway, Hogue noted, China’s alleged involvement could have affected who was elected to Parliament.
“This is significant,” she concluded
During public hearings, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and senior Liberal party officials testified that while they had been briefed on the nomination issue, they chose not to act because they felt the intelligence presented to them wasn’t robust enough to take action on.
But Hogue’s report also shows Trudeau gave a slightly more nuanced answer to that question in an in-camera interview.
“Un-endorsing Mr. Dong would have direct electoral consequences” as the Liberal party expected to win Don Valley North, and would have had a “devastating impact” on Dong personally, her report quotes Trudeau as saying.
Dong now sits in the House of Commons as an Independent. At news conference Friday following the release of Hogue’s report, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc would not explain why no decision has been made on whether he can return to the Liberal caucus.
Dong had told the inquiry he knew nothing of any Chinese-state involvement in his nomination, and in a statement late Friday welcomed Hogue’s findings and said he looked forward to her future recommendations.
LeBlanc also defended the Liberals’ nomination process; party membership is free, and anyone with a local address who is 14 or older — including non-citizens — can vote for who runs under the Liberal banner. While LeBlanc said the Liberals are always looking to improve, he stated it’s important for their process to remain as open as possible.
“It’s not only the Liberal party that should take note of the threat of an open nomination,” LeBlanc said in French. “I have full confidence in the Liberal party and the rules that are in place.”
To vote in a Conservative nomination race, by contrast, a person must pay for a party membership and must be a citizen or permanent resident.
Allegations the Trudeau government didn’t act forcefully to combat foreign interference because it benefited from it have been a long-standing political attack from the Conservative party, which Hogue’s report says was likely the target of foreign interference itself in 2021.
In her review of the intelligence and testimony about allegations that China was driving a misinformation campaign against Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu and former party leader Erin O’Toole, she wrote that those efforts “could have impacted the result” in Chiu’s Steveston-Richmond East riding.
But she dismissed an argument advanced by the Tories after the election that multiple ridings had been impacted by Chinese-backed meddling.
“It is possible that the online narratives could have led to wider allegations of anti-Asian racism on the part of the (Conservative party) and thus, potentially a wider impact,” she said.
“However, I simply do not have a basis on which to make a finding that such an effect occurred. In saying this, I do not mean to minimize the legitimate concerns of those who raised these issues. My findings are limited to the evidence before me.”
Conservative MP Michael Chong, who has been the target of foreign interference, expressed satisfaction with Hogue’s findings, saying that at last the public has a clear picture of the issue.
“The government has consistently also told us that the system worked in the last two elections,” Chong said. “Justice Hogue concluded that interference took place in the last two elections.”
Hogue also said there is intelligence pointing to China actively engaging in Greater Vancouver Area ridings, likely favouring particular candidates and deliberately working to get others it didn’t like excluded from community events — among them, the NDP’s Jenny Kwan.
“The alarm bell has now been sounded,” Kwan told the Star in an interview, “and the question is, what will the government do about it?”
Other instances flagged by Hogue include intelligence that seven Liberal and four Conservative candidates, as well as 13 political staff members — all unnamed — were subjects of an alleged scheme by Chinese-linked agents to influence the 2019 election. Hogue wrote that intelligence suggested there were likely at least two transfers of $250,000 from China to “threat actors” in Canada, but no evidence that the money reached any of the political candidates.
Hogue’s report states that “some of these individuals appeared willing to co-operate” with the interference attempts, while “others appeared to be unaware.”
Although Hogue named China as the “main perpetrator” of foreign interference in Canada, she also highlighted incidents involving India and Pakistan. Her findings were released the same day the RCMP announced charges in the killing of a Sikh activist in B.C., whose shooting death has been linked to the Indian government.
The Hogue inquiry was established after media reports based on classified intelligence documents laying out allegations of China’s activities, which raised concerns the Liberal government had turned a blind eye to them.
The Liberals, as well as other reports that have reviewed both the 2019 and 2021 election campaigns, have asserted that while there was foreign interference, the overall integrity of the election results was not affected, and the safeguards in place were robust.
Hogue challenged that conclusion.
“The evidence I have heard to date does not demonstrate bad faith on anyone’s part, or that information was deliberately and improperly withheld, but it does suggest that on some occasions, information related to foreign interference did not reach its intended recipient, while on others the information was not properly understood by those who received it,” she said.
“These are serious issues that need to be investigated and considered.”
Kwan said in her view, the Hogue report found a systemic and colossal failure of communication, and the government should consider having an independent external agency tackle the problem.
The report raised questions about how to better tackle foreign interference, including when or how officials should address misinformation campaigns that proliferate online, and whether it is best to rely on responsible journalists to “cleanse” the media ecosystem of falsehoods.
Hogue also questioned how and when officials should make public any attempts to influence Canadian democracy in the future. She warned that going public could also serve a foreign state’s goal of undermining confidence in the political system.
“This paradox is one of the issues I will look at in the next stage of my work,” she wrote, referring to the second phase of the ongoing inquiry that is expected to conclude with a final report by Dec. 31.
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